WHOI scientist publishes commentary on forecasting a pause in Northwest Atlantic warming

Woods Hole, Mass. (July 9, 2025) —A new invited commentary by Ke Chen, associate scientist in the Physical Oceanography department at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), is highlighting the significance of a study published in Geophysical Research Letters.

Chen’s commentary, “Understanding and Predicting Northwest Atlantic Shelf Temperature Variability,” published in Geophysical Research Letters, discusses the broader context of a recent study by Koul et al. (2024).  That study focuses on recent advances in forecasting coastal ocean variability, including a potential temporary slowdown in the rapid warming of the Northwest Atlantic continental shelf over the next decade —an outcome linked to natural climate fluctuations, including predicted changes in Atlantic Ocean circulation and a shifting Gulf Stream.

The Northwest Atlantic continental shelf—home to some of the most productive fisheries in North America—has warmed rapidly in recent decades and experienced increasingly frequent marine heatwaves. These changes pose significant risks to marine ecosystems, fisheries, and coastal infrastructure.

“The recent study uses a regional ocean model to predict a temporary slowdown in the region's warming over the next decade,” said Chen. “While this research demonstrates our ability to forecast regional climate variability, more studies and long‐term observations are needed to deepen our understanding of key ocean processes and improve model accuracy.”

The commentary also notes that while the study represents a significant advancement, further research is needed to explore alternative modeling frameworks and better resolve uncertainties. “This work highlights both the progress we’ve made and the challenges that lie ahead.”

The full commentary is available at: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL115653

Original study: Koul et al. (2024), Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL110946

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