Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Andrew Beet

»A test for a regime shift
»A note on the statistics of the largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle.
»Marine protected areas in "nonlinear" ecosystems
»Comparing vertical plankton profiles with replication
»Patterns in abundance and growth of juvenile lobster, Homarus americanus
»Comparing two vertical plankton distributions
»Optimal seasonal sampling for estimating an interannual trend
»On an early result on stability and complexity
»On lumping species in food webs
»Testing for shifts in the vertical distribution of plankton using a robust Kolmogorov-Smirnov like statistic

Solow, A. R. and A.R. Beet, A test for a regime shift, Fisheries Oceanography 14:3, 236-240, 2005

This note describes a formal statistical approach to testing for a regime shift based on population time series for a system of interacting species or groups. Under this approach, a regime shift is said to occur if the system switches abruptly from varying around one locally stable steady state to varying around another. This allows the problem to be formulated as testing for a changepoint in a vector autoregresive process. The test is illustrated using data from the North Sea covering the period 1963-1997

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