Dangendorf, S., Oelsmann, J., Mitrovica, J. X., Tornqvist, T. E., Piecuch, C. G., Creel, R., Coronel, W., Thompson, P. R., Ebinger, C., & Wahl, T. (2026). Variable contributions of vertical land motion to sea-level change inferred at tide gauges. Nature Geoscience. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02005-1

a–d, Nonlinear vertical land motion values at (a) Bangkok, Thailand; (b) Venice, Italy; (c) Pago Pago, American Samoa; and (d) the east coast of Japan. Insets show tide gauge and satellite altimetry observations in comparison with climatic sea level. Climatic sea level minus tide gauge differences are shown with their uncertainties (based on the 4,000-member ensemble in ref. 3) as 95% confidence interval (CI) error bars and nonlinear trends with decadal smoothing applied (95% CI is based on 2,000 random samples with noise perturbation; Methods). In a, a digitized groundwater extraction record from ref. 31 is shown in yellow for comparison. In b, we added a digitized version of the aggregated GNSS, InSAR and levelling records from ref. 21 in yellow. In c and d, GNSS records from NGL in the vicinity of the tide gauge are shown for validation. Figure from Dangendorf et al. (2026)