Creel, R. C., Kopp, R. E., Dutton, A., Zhou, Y., Raymo, M. E., Britt, C. J., & DeConto, R. M. (2026). North American ice sheet persistence into past interglacials should inform future projections. Nature Communications, 17, 2280. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-70032-y
Image courtesy of Roger Creel
Projections of Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) mass loss by 2100 under a very high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) for (a) low—1.2-5.3 meters, 95% credible interval (Dyer et al., 2021)—and (b) high—μ = 7.6, σ = 1.6 (Dutton et al., 2015)—Last Interglacial peak GMSL scenarios in which the Laurentide Ice Sheet retains ≤6 meters global mean sea level (GMSL) equivalent volume. Projections follow Dutton et al. (2015) in assuming that during peak GMSL, thermosteric and mountain glaciers contribute 1 ± 0.2 m and the Greenland Ice Sheet contributes 2 ± 1.5 m. Calculations are performed using the Gaussian process emulation framework of Gilford et al. (2020).