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Dr. Porter Hoagland Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543 Dr. Di Jin Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543 Program Manager: Michael Jeck NOAA/NMFS Related NOAA Strategic Plan Goal: Protect, restore and manage the use of coastal and ocean resources through ecosystem-based management. Project Overview Over the last several decades, harmful algal bloom (HAB) events have been observed in more locations than ever before throughout the United States. The 2005 bloom of Alexandrium fundyense was the most widespread and intense in New England waters since a similar event more than three decades ago. In this study, using historical data from the National Marine Fisheries Service, the Massachusetts Division of Marine Fisheries, and other sources, we develop estimates of the direct economic impacts of the 2005 event on commercial shellfish fisheries in Maine and Massachusetts. Results of our regression analyses suggest that the 2005 event had broad spatial and temporal effects on the shellfish market. In response to a supply shortage resulting from local closures, there was an increase in shellfish imports to New England during the red tide. Further, shellfish closures in Maine were the most likely cause of observable price changes on the Fulton Fish Market in New York. Accomplishments/Progress/Status Existing impact assessments of HAB events are often rough estimates based on limited observation or hypothetical events. In most cases, we do not have a good understanding of the economic effects of red tide events. From a management perspective, however, it is important to measure the scale of the economic costs to society of HAB events. We develop estimates of direct economic impacts of the 2005 event on commercial shellfish fisheries in Maine and Massachusetts using methods that are consistent with economic theory and data from NMFS, DMF, and other sources. Our results indicate that the low-end estimate for total direct impacts in Maine was $2.4 million including lost revenues in the softshell clam and mussel fisheries. The total direct impacts on commercial shellfish industry in Massachusetts may be as high as $18 million. However, because of serious data limitations, the estimated direct impact on Massachusetts harvesters should be viewed with caution. To improve estimates of HAB impacts in Massachusetts, it will be essential to construct a baseline of monthly shellfish landings so that HAB impact assessments may focus on the relevant months. For the same reason, daily data would further improve the precision of our future estimates. We have shown that impact estimates are affected by baseline values of non-HAB years. An accurate impact estimate requires a relatively stable baseline using data from recent years. We have identified two broader effects of the 2005 red tide event on shellfish market. First, the event led to an increase in shellfish imports to fill the supply-demand gap resulting from declines in local harvests. This implies that indirect impacts of a HAB-event on the seafood industries may be partially mitigated by rising supplies from alternative market channels. Second, we have shown that HAB impacts on softshell clam prices are spatially linked: the shellfish closures in Maine may result in price changes in New York. The price was higher than normal during the early stages of the red tide event (May and June), possibly due to supply shortages from Maine, and lower than normal during the later stage of the event (August through October), possibly because of consumer concerns of seafood quality resulting from negative media publicity. Another possible cause for the price drop is that when the New York market expected supply to be limited all summer, wholesalers switched to other sources to ensure a stable supply. Publications Jin, D., E. Thunberg and P. Hoagland. 2007. Economic impact of the 2005 red tide event on commercial shellfish fisheries in New England. Ocean and Coastal Management, Submitted. Summary of Interaction with NOAA This was a collaborative research project with NOAA. Eric Thunburg at the Social Sciences Branch of the Northeast Fisheries Science Center worked closely with Di Jin and Porter Hoagland at WHOI Marine Policy Center throughout the project. Summary of Education and Outreach Activity Relevant presentations: Jin, D. 2006. “Economic Impact of the 2005 Red Tide Event: Project Description and Some Preliminary Results.” Presented at the MIT Sea Grant Symposium on the Alexandrium Red Tide of 2005 in Cambridge, MA (April 18). Hoagland, P. 2006. “The Public Policy of Harmful Algal Blooms.” Presented at the 12th International Conference on Harmful Algae, Copenhagen, Denmark (4 September). Hoagland, P. 2007. “Economic Impacts of Harmful Algal Blooms.” Presented at the 2007 Gordon Research Conference on Mycotoxins and Phycotoxins, Colby College, Waterville, Me. (21 June). Hoagland, P. 2007. “From Jubilees to Halos: Clarifying the Economic Effects of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) on Commercial Fisheries.” Presented at the American Fisheries Society-Sea Grant Symposium “Mitigating Impacts of Natural Hazards on Fishery Ecosystems” at the 2007 AFS Annual Meeting, San Francisco, Calif. (5 September). Contributed to: Program Planning and Integration (PPI). 2007. Economic Statistics for NOAA. Washington: Office of the Chief Economist, NOAA, US Department of Commerce (DRAFT). [Section on HAB Impacts.] Last updated: August 19, 2008 | |||||||||||||||||||
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