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Project Summary

The goal of GLOBEC is to understand the underlying biological-physical interactions that determine how climate change affects abundance of marine animals. The GLOBEC approach focuses on individuals and populations dynamics of target species. This proposed study will address major PRS themes by examining the influence of climate on physical and biological processes for a synthetic understanding of how basin- and global-scales changes in climate force physical processes that control local and regional-scale biological communities. We will use the approaches suggested in the RFP, including pan-regional data analysis and physical-biological models by extending our domain beyond the NW Atlantic GLOBEC and connect to the Arctic system for a better understanding of interactions across the regions. As part of the GLOBEC NW Atlantic (NWA) program, we developed a 3D biological-physical model to examine effects of climate forced boundary conditions on plankton dynamics in the Georges Bank-Gulf of Maine region. Separately, we have developed a new 3D model of the Arctic Ocean (AO) region and are using it to examine transport of copepod species. As yet, these two models have not been connected to each other. In this pan-regional study, we propose to combine these models to study linkages between these two systems under scenarios of global warming. We will examine a series of hypotheses that address how dominant copepod species populations in these regions may interact under future warming conditions. Specifically we will use the combined model together with existing data on abundances and vital rates to study how a melting Arctic is likely to affect the distribution and abundance of copepod species across the whole of the Arctic-NW Atlantic pan-regional domain. The proposed work involves four steps: 1) merge the NWA and AO physical models, extending our lower food web model (NPZD) across the domain, to generate present and future (2050) environmental conditions. 2) use these modeled environmental conditions together with life histories of key species to determine their population growth potential, 3) use an individual based model (IBM) parameterized for key species to examine effects of transport and behavior on population growth, 4) use an evolutionary IBM for a generic copepod to determine optimal life history traits under existing and future (warm) conditions.

 

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Last updated June 18, 2009
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