Solow, A. R. and A.R. Beet, *A test for a regime shift*, Fisheries Oceanography 14:3, 236-240, 2005
This note describes a formal statistical approach to testing for a regime shift based on population time series for a system of interacting species or groups. Under this approach, a regime shift is said to occur if the system switches abruptly from varying around one locally stable steady state to varying around another. This allows the problem to be formulated as testing for a changepoint in a vector autoregresive process. The test is illustrated using data from the North Sea covering the period 1963-1997 |