_30605.jpg) |  | Stephanie Jenouvrier
Tenured position, CEBC-CNRS
Biology
Contact Information:
Work: 508 289 3245
sjenouvrier@whoi.edu
Building: Redfield 104
Mailing Address:
Mailstop 34
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Woods Hole, MA 02543
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Research Interests
My research interest is the study of the effect of environmental fluctuations and human induced impact on the dynamic of animal populations. I’m fascinated by Polar Regions and I'm working on seabirds breeding in sub-Antarctic and Antarctica: petrels and penguins breeding in Terre Adélie, the French base in Antarctica, and albatross breeding in French sub-antarctic Islands (Crozet, Kerguelen, and Amsterdam Islands).
The Southern Ocean plays a critical role in regulating climate and is subject to strong impacts from human activities such as fisheries. Large seabirds such as albatrosses, petrels and penguins are long-lived top predators and they integrate environmental variation in physical and biological conditions over large spatial and temporal scales.Long-term datasets on seabirds breeding in the southern hemisphere showed relationships between climate variations, fishing effort and population parameters at different spatial and temporal scales.
Many seabirds are of conservation concern. A much higher percentage of seabirds are globally threatened (about 20 %) than bird species in general (only about 12 %). Twenty of 21 albatross species have been listed as endangered, threatened or near threatened by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature. The primary threat to albatrosses is fisheries. Changes in distribution and abundance of prey (including commercial species such as Antarctic krill Euphausia superba) may also be contributing to albatross, petrels and penguins population declines. A better understanding of the ecology and population dynamics of Antarctic and sub-Antarctic seabirds community will make important contributions to international conservation initiatives.
Scientific project
In the face of climate change, there is a growing demand for accurate forecasts of its environmental, ecological and societal impacts. The objective of my main research project is to understand and predict the population responses of Antarctic seabirds to present and future climate changes, and to compare responses among others seabirds species (funding by a Marie Curie fellowship).
To achieve this goal, I am developing demographic models (matrix population models) in Hal Caswell’s group at WHOI. Long-term studies that follow the survival and reproduction of marked individuals are especially valuable for investigating demography. I work with a high quality data set on Antarctic seabirds in Terre Adélie, Antarctica, collected by the Marine Top Predator group of the Centre d'études biologiques de Chizé (CEBC).
Furthermore, I am developing demographic models linked to climate projections by climate models used in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To link demographic models with IPCC climate projections, I got a visiting fellowship from the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) to work with climatologists Julienne Stroeve (National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)), Mark Serreze (NSIDC) and Marika Holland (The National Center for Atmospheric Research).
During my PhD and my post-doctorate, I developed mathematical models to describe the demographic processes (Hal Caswell WHOI) and eventually the effect of environmental variations on population dynamics. I analyzed statistical models based on capture-recapture data to estimate demographic parameters and their relationships with environmental variables necessary to parameterize the demographic models. I showed that sea ice extent (SIE) affects the demographic traits of Antarctic seabirds, and thus their population dynamics (Jenouvrier et al. 2003, 2005a,b, 2006). Population responses are different among species according to their life history, some species being more sensitive than others. For example, penguins are more sensitive to decrease in SIE than petrels. Emperor penguins breed almost annually and their adult survival decreases during year with low SIE (Jenouvrier et al 2006). On the contrary, petrels skip reproduction during years with low SIE rather than compromising their survival and future opportunities to reproduce.
Climate models are currently the best tools to predict future climate changes. There are variations within and among different climate models, not all climate models being equally reliable. We carefully selected appropriate climate models to reduce climate-related uncertainty to eventually project the emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes (Jenouvrier et al 2009 PNAS). We showed that the probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100, and the median population size is projected to decline from approximately 6000 to 400 breeding pairs by 2100. My future work, is thus to apply this original and successful approach to others species, to eventually compare the population responses of a seabird community to future climate change in Terre Adélie, Antarctica.
I'm also involved in other projects, such as investigating the impact of global climate change and fisheries on the population dynamics of wandering albatross. This project requires estimating the demographic parameters of the wandering albatross, which is not an easy task. Indeed, the wandering albatross reproduce once every two years. Biannual breeding systems impose a lot of constraints for the reliable estimability of demographic parameter. I'm working with Hal Caswell (WHOI) and Christine Hunter (University of Fairbanks, Alaska) who develop new capture-recapture statistical models for albatrosses species (NSF project). My future work, to include the impact of fisheries in our population models to understand and predict the effect of global change on albatross populations.
Education
• PhD in Population Ecology, University of Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris. 2001-2004. “Effects of climate variability on the population dynamics of an Antarctic seabird community.” supervised by Dr. H. Weimerskirch and Christophe Barbraud. Centre d’Etudes Biologiques de Chizé and Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Villiers en Bois, France. Members of the jury: Hal Caswell, Bernard Cazelles, Jean Clobert, John Croxall, Jean-Michel Gaillard, Henri Weimerskirch • Master in Ecology, Univ. Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris. 2001-1999. o “Biodiversity dynamics : study of the performance of the estimator of the temporal and spatial dynamics of biodiversity parameters taking into account the probability of detection.” supervised by Dr. T. Boulinier. Laboratoire d’Ecologie, UPMC, Paris, France. 2001- 2000. o “Conservation of the golden eagle in the Mercantour National Park, France.” supervised by Dr. F. Sarazin. Laboratoire d’Ecologie, UPMC, Paris, France. 2000-1999. • BSc of Science in Biology and Ecology, Univ. Paris-Sud, Orsay. 1999-1996. o "Monitoring brown bears in the Pyrenees National Park, France : a statistical method to identify the individuals from their tracks”, supervised by J.J. Camarra and E. Corda. Office National de la Chasse, Pau and St Benoît, France. 1999. o “ Monitoring population : the example of the brown bear in the Pyrenees National Park, France “, supervised by Dr. C. Berducou. Office National des Forêts, Pau, France. 1998.
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