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This figure shows preliminary results from a discounted
cash flow model with confidence intervals
that depict the likelihood of profits and losses. These
results suggest that an offshore aquaculture enterprise
is marginally profitable at an average market
price of live, processed product at $0.64 per pound
(the price that results from the demand model when
a US coastal-ocean farm comes on line). This price
currently exceeds the price for wild harvest mussels,
but it is well below the average price per pound for
aquaculture product imported from Canada. Model
assumptions include: a field of 300 longlines, with
25 socks per longline, worked by a moderate-sized
scalloper; a two-year growout from natural set; each
longline lasts 10 years; each longline is maintained
three times and harvested once during the two-year
growout. The hypothetical aquaculture operation
produces about 656 tons of mussels per year, which
is equivalent to the current average monthly consumption
of mussels in the United States (i.e.,
about one-twelfth the annual output).
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